China's economy bid farewell to double-digit growt

"12th Five Year Plan": China's economy bid farewell to double-digit growth

the wheel of China's economy has been driving at a high speed for ten years with an average annual double-digit growth. China Securities Journal believes that in the next five years, China's economy and society are facing historic changes. In the face of the huge political, environmental and social costs brought about by sustained high-speed growth, China will actively choose to withdraw from the era of double-digit growth. Accordingly, economic policies and control ideas in various fields will be significantly adjusted during the 12th Five Year Plan period

at present, China is facing multiple economic and social tests: first, the growth mode of high input, high consumption, high growth and low efficiency is unsustainable. Second, tight employment has become the norm, and the labor force will turn from surplus to shortage. Lewis' inflection point has arrived. Third, after just crossing the poverty trap, China is facing the threat of the middle-income trap, and social contradictions and frictions are more prominent in the economic and social transformation

double digit growth inevitably requires corresponding growth rates of investment, consumption and net exports. In the past decade, the growth rate of the troika has reached an average of 20%, 14% and 21% year-on-year respectively, and the contribution rate of investment to GDP growth in the past two years has reached 95% and 55%. With the withdrawal of investment stimulus policies and measures to encourage imports, the momentum for sustained high growth in investment and net exports will weaken, and there are signs at present; Consumption starts facing a series of bottlenecks, such as income, social security, housing prices and so on. Objectively speaking, the potential growth rate of China's economy has declined<1. Purpose of the experiment: test the times and time of breaking or stretching the shoelace by constantly applying the breaking force and stretching force/p>

the environmental protection and energy consumption cost caused by the double-digit growth is becoming increasingly prominent. The high growth of investment in the past two years has become the biggest killer of environmental protection. Experts said that at present, for every 1 percentage point of GDP growth, energy consumption will increase by 0.8 to 1 percentage point. Even if clean energy is widely used, this figure is difficult to be lower than 0.5. In 2009, the Chinese government announced that by 2020, the carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP will be reduced by% compared with 2005, which will objectively force the economic growth rate to decline

inflation and the cost of monetary policy brought about by double-digit growth have become the biggest driver of economic fluctuations. In the past five years, the annual surplus has reached US $220billion, and a large amount of liquidity input has become an important reason for inflation. The central bank has to hedge a large number of foreign exchange holdings, which will inevitably cause accidental damage to the economy. At the same time, overheated economic growth itself will accelerate the stimulation of demand, accompanied by inflation

in addition, double-digit growth also brings the cost of delayed upgrading of economic structure and industrial structure, and the cost of the accumulation of the gap between the rich and the poor and social contradictions. In the new five years, it is urgent to find a solution to these contradictions

fortunately, after 30 years of reform and opening up, China has the strength and foundation to bid farewell to double-digit growth. China has US $2.84 trillion in foreign exchange reserves, ranking first in the world; In 2010, the fiscal revenue exceeded 8 trillion yuan, ranking second in the world. China has shifted from pursuing high growth to improving people's livelihood and balanced development, and has a solid financial and foreign exchange base. At the same time, China's economic structure has undergone tremendous changes, the proportion of the service industry has been increasing, employment channels have been broadened, and the judgment that 8% GDP growth is the bottom line of employment has withdrawn from the historical stage. In addition, with the unexpected recovery of the United States, the international environment is gradually improving. The next five years will be a relatively stable development cycle of the international economy, providing a good international environment for China to change its economic development mode

therefore, in the first year of the 12th Five Year Plan, we must seize the opportunity and make up our minds to resolutely bid farewell to the era of double-digit growth. The international financial crisis has actually slowed down the pace of China's economic adjustment and brought greater pressure to the future transformation

to bid farewell to double-digit growth, we must first make corresponding policy adjustments, for example, cancel the assessment of local GDP and replace it with the assessment of environmental protection, energy conservation and emission reduction, public services and social security; Make fundamental adjustments to the current investment, consumption and foreign trade policies, formulate new verification standards for industrial access and foreign investment access according to the actual situation, and launch consumption promotion policies; Consider social equity and make corresponding adjustments to tax policies and legal systems. In addition, it is necessary to make full preparations for and respond to the possible consequences of the economic slowdown, such as unemployment, the closure of some enterprises, and the withdrawal of foreign capital